Drag the slider, or start from someone else's estimate.
Roughly 58% of surveyed AI researchers put the risk at or above 5%.
Share of 2,704 surveyed AI researchers by their estimate. Median 5%.
The game below has been set up so that a good player will lose at the above set risk, 5%.
Each square is one step of AI development. Mines are set so a careful player loses 5% of the time: 5% risk → 8 mines. (More mines than percent: with a safe first click, a careful player almost never loses a sparse board.) Mines are extinction. Clear every safe square to reach the good future. Needs JavaScript to play.